The Big Dead Machine

I’m only about 25 percent through my APBA replay of the 1972 baseball season. Although there are many games left to play, if the first quarter is any indication of how the season will turn out, it’s going to be the weirdest one I’ve done yet.

Only Pittsburgh is leading the division that the team won in the real season 50 years ago. The Pirates, fueled by Willie Stargell’s lead-leading 12 home runs and pitchers Doc Ellis’ 5-0 record and Steve Blass’ 6-1 record, are the best team in my replay. At 26-11, they lead the National League East by 3.5 games.

In the American League East, New York and Cleveland are tied for first place. Actual division winner Detroit is in third, trailing by 3.5 games.

Minnesota surprisingly leads the American League West by two games over Oakland and four games over Kansas City.

The National League West is the strangest by far. Cincinnati, the winner of the real pennant of 1972 and National League World Series representative are awful. At 17-22, they are mired in fourth place, tied with lowly Atlanta. Houston is in first place with a 22-19 mark.

The Reds began well, appearing to be the mirror image of the real team which shared the best record in baseball with Pittsburgh in the real season. They opened winning 10 of their first 13 games.

But then the Big Red Machine threw a rod and came to a grinding halt. They’ve lost 15 of their last 17 games and were outscored 78 runs to 42. Most of the loses came to weaker teams, too. In a series that seemed to at first foreshadow a possible National League playoff, Pittsburgh beat the Reds two out of three games. Ok, the Bucs are the best team and losing two to them is understandable. But then the bottom dropped out.

Cincy lost two to the Cubs and were swept in a four-game set with St. Louis. San Francisco, which is in last place in the West, won three of four against the Reds and San Diego, which is battling the Giants for the cellar dweller crown, has won two against the Reds. The two play a double-header next in San Diego and then the Reds host Atlanta and the Padres in Cincinnati before heading to Houston for a four-game series.

So, why is Cincinnati playing so badly? APBA produces its game cards based on the real results of each player’s season. If Pete Rose bloops a lot of singles during a season, chances are he’ll get a “7” or two on his card, which is a guaranteed base hit regardless of the pitcher (in most situations). Johnny Bench led the league with 40 home runs in 1972, so his card reflects that with several “1s,” which are indicative of a home run.

But here’s where the game gets interesting and what makes APBA not just a simple dice-rolling game that only reflects statistics. Everyone who’s played this game has seen the oddities. Someone gets “hot” and defies the statistical logic of his card. For example, I benched Frank Robinson of the Los Angeles Dodgers for a few games after he was pretty unproductive. I brought him back and he hit three home runs in a game against Philadelphia. He hit homers in the next three games, giving him six in a four-game run.

I’ve used Deron Johnson in as a pinch hitter for the Phillies in two consecutive games and he hit a home run in each.

The Reds now are the inverse of that. During the 17-game stretch, Pete Rose, who led the Reds with a .307 batting average in the real 1972 season, hit .220. Johnny Bench went 12 for 54 at bats for a .222 average.  Cincinnati batted .251 as a team during the real season. In these last 17 games, the Reds hit .209. Their opponents hit .278.

Again, it’s very early in the season. Maybe the dice will turn around for the Reds. That upcoming four-game stand with the Astros could be an indicator of how things will go. The Reds could get back into the race or bury themselves even deeper.